Thursday, February 19, 2009

Top 16 Matches

Listed below are the number of top 16 matches between the AP Poll and the Power Points System for each year since 1978 followed by the number of teams (out of 31) with each respective ranking that finished in the opposing system's top 16. The AP's numbers are listed first.

1978-13
1979-12
1980-14
1981-13
1982-13
1983-15
1984-11
1985-15
1986-13
1987-13
1988-14
1989-15
1990-14
1991-13
1992-13
1993-15
1994-13
1995-14
1996-15
1997-13
1998-14
1999-14
2000-14
2001-13
2002-14
2003-13
2004-15
2005-15
2006-15
2007-14
2008-13


1--31 31
2--31 31
3--31 31
4--31 31
5--31 31
6--30 29
7--30 29
8--30 30
9--30 29
10-30 28
11-28 28
12-21 23
13-24 22
14-20 21
15-14 18
16-13 13

Friday, February 6, 2009

Arizona Cardinals and the BCS

It comes as no surprise to me that playoff opponents have adopted the Arizona Cardinals as the poster child for their stand against college football instituting an expanded playoff system. Their argument is that allowing the college football equivalent of the Arizona Cardinals to qualify for the playoffs and “just get hot” over a four week stretch would severely undermine the importance of the regular season. I believe this argument is disingenuous due to the odds against this ever occurring. Let me be clear that my preference for a 16-team playoff is not about any desire to see the college equivalent of the Arizona Cardinals succeed in winning the national title. I’m simply not bothered by the possibility given the probable path any such team would face in doing so.

That said, among the problems with using the Arizona Cardinals in their fight against a college playoff is that playoff opponents project the NFL format on to college football. However, the NFL format makes it easier for a 9-7 team to make the playoffs and reach the Super Bowl than it needs to. For example, if the NFL playoffs included the top 12 teams straight up, the Arizona Cardinals could have only been the 12th overall seed if they made the playoffs at all. Assuming the NFL still used a flexible bracket, Arizona’s path to the Super Bowl would have included games at the five seed, one seed, and two seed in that order assuming no upsets but their own. The Cardinals would have had no chance of hosting a playoff game much less the two home games afforded to them under the NFL format. While NFL may not be inclined to change its format for its own reasons, the point is that a format exists that would make things much more difficult for a 9-7 team to make the playoffs and reach the Super Bowl. As it is, the Arizona Cardinals are only one of two 9-7 teams to reach the Super Bowl. The other is the 1979 Los Angeles Rams. Given that only two 9-7 teams have ever reached the Super Bowl with neither winning, I doubt any NFL team (except, perhaps, the Detroit Lions) would take a 9-7 record if offered to them before the start of the season.

As for college football, the 9-4 ACC Champion Virginia Tech Hokies have been offered as the college equivalent of the Arizona Cardinals. If I applied my desired playoff format to this past season while including the official conference champions, Virginia Tech would have been a 13 seed. As such, the Hokies’ probable path to the national title would have included games at Utah, at Oklahoma, at Texas, and versus Florida on a neutral site. Since I-A was established in 1978, only nine teams (based on power points standings) have even beaten two top four teams in the same season. Under my proposed format, Virginia Tech would have to beat the top four teams consecutively including three on the road assuming no upsets but their own. If we accept Virginia Tech as the college equivalent of the Arizona Cardinals, we might only expect two such teams to even reach the title game every 43 years. Of course, that does not account for the fact that the Hokies will not benefit from two home games like the Arizona Cardinals did nor the fact that college football’s parity is unlikely to ever mirror the NFL’s. As such, there is no reason to believe that any college football team that expects to compete for the national title would ever settle for a 13 seed based on the ridiculous implication offered by playoff opponents that “just getting hot” against the top four teams is such a simple task that college football should deny that possibility even at the expense of several teams with equal or fewer losses than the two teams voted into a championship game.

2008 FCS Season

I followed the FCS season this year in order to see how the Power Points System compares to the NCAA selection committee. Since FCS teams do not play equal game schedules versus FCS competition only, I modified the rules to account for interdivisional play. This only amounted to assigning substitute values for higher and lower classification opponents respectively based on their combined efforts. For example, FBS teams posted an 85-2 record versus FCS teams. Projected over 12 games, all FBS opponents are treated as a 12-0 FCS team. Lower division opponents finished 15-87 versus FCS competition and each is treated as equal to a 2-10 FCS team. No modifications were made to account for unequal game schedules.

Although my desired playoff format determines automatic qualifiers in a different manner than the actual conferences, this comparison includes the actual automatic qualifiers (eight) plus the top remaining teams (eight). Listed below is the 2008 FCS playoff field if determined by the Power Points System. Teams are listed highest to lowest national standing followed by their order amongst each other in the media poll.

1-James Madison 1
2-Appalachian State 2
3-South Carolina State 12
4-Montana 5
5-Villanova 6
6-Cal Poly 3
7-Wofford 8
8-Richmond 7
9-Northern Iowa 4
10-New Hampshire 10
11-Southern Illinois 9
12-Eastern Kentucky 15
13-Weber State 11
14-Liberty 13
15-Colgate 14
16-Texas State 16

The NCAA committee selected Maine over Liberty making this the only disagreement over qualifiers between the two methods. That said, based on my desired playoff format, Montana and Northern Iowa would have replaced Weber State and Southern Illinois respectively as their conference’s automatic qualifiers. Furthermore, for those playoff opponents that insist a large playoff will allow teams to rest their starters in the final weekend, only four teams had clinched playoff berths under my proposed format entering the final weekend and three of these teams had two to three home playoff games at stake. James Madison had the least to lose in the final weekend. The worst fate for the Dukes would have been a three seed if they had lost their final game and Cal Poly beat Wisconsin thereby costing them a guaranteed home game in the semifinal round.

Proposed Playoff Format

Below is my desired regular season and playoff format for college football including my proposed objective ranking system.

1-All FBS teams play 12 regular season games versus FBS competition only including six home games and six away games. No conference championship games, exempted games, or FCS games.

2-FBS teams are ranked most to least:
a. Power Points (Games Won Opponents’ Wins - Games Lost Opponents’ Losses)
b. Net Wins ( Wins - Losses)
c. Schedule Strength (Opponents’ Power Points)
d. Net Points (Points For - Points Against)

3-16 teams qualify for the playoffs (11 conference champions plus five wildcards).

4-Each conference’s automatic berth is awarded to the team with the best conference record. If there is a tie, the highest ranked team in the national standings per the rules described above is awarded the automatic berth.

5-The top five teams in the national standings that do not win their conference’s automatic berth are awarded the five wildcard berths.

6-The 16 playoff qualifiers are seeded highest to lowest national standing.

7-First round pairings are 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, 4-13, 5-12, 6-11, 7-10, and 8-9. Subsequent round pairings match the highest and lowest advancing seeds, second highest and second lowest, and so on.

8-Higher seeded teams host all playoff games through the first three rounds. The national title game is held at a neutral site.

2008 Power Points Standings


REGULAR SEASON FINALE
1-Oklahoma 68
2-Texas 67
3-Florida 66
4-Utah 58
5-Boise State 57
6-Alabama 53
7-Southern California 53
8-Texas Tech 49
9-Penn State 47
10-Ohio State 47
11-Cincinnati 43
12-Pittsburgh 40
13-Texas Christian 39
14-Ball State 38
15-Georgia 38
16-Michigan State 36
17-Brigham Young 31
18-Oklahoma State 31
19-Oregon 30
20-Oregon State 30
21-Missouri 28
22-Boston College 28
23-Virginia Tech 26
24-Georgia Tech 24
25-Nebraska 23

POSTSEASON FINALE
1-Florida 82
2-Texas 79
3-Utah 73
4-Oklahoma 71
5-Southern California 67
6-Boise State 58
7-Alabama 57
8-Texas Christian 50
9-Georgia 48
10-Penn State 47
11-Texas Tech 47
12-Ohio State 45
13-Cincinnati 41
14-Oregon State 41
15-Pittsburgh 40
16-Oregon 39
17-Missouri 35
18-Virginia Tech 35
19-Ball State 34
20-Michigan State 34
21-Rice 31
22-California 30
23-Mississippi 28
24-Oklahoma State 28
25-Brigham Young 27