What Matters?

Since 1978, teams that finished the regular season with one loss (no ties) and ranked in the final AP Poll met during the regular season 26 times. Under the Power Points System, schedule is everything. That said, I compared the Power Points System and the AP Poll to determine how often the head-to-head winner, schedule strength winner, and first to lose winner ranked highest individually and in combination. The results are below.


POWER POINTS SYSTEM
Schedule Strength Winner 26-0
Head-to-Head Winner 17-9
First to Lose Winner 15-11

HTH and SS winners 17-0
FTL and SS winners 15-0
FTL and HTH winners 9-3

FTL, HTH, and SS winners 9-0

AP POLL
First to Lose Winner 20-6
Schedule Strength Winner 19-7
Head-to-Head Winner 18-8

FTL and HTH winners 12-0
FTL and SS winners 14-1
HTH and SS winners 14-3

FTL, HTH, and SS winners 9-0

Rounds 5-6: Objectivity vs. Subjectivity

Objectivity (Power Points System) vs. Subjectivity (NCAA Selection Committee)

OVERALL RECORD
Objectivity 48-15. Subjectivity 42-20-1.

GAMES BETWEEN COMPETING HIGHER SEEDS
Objectivity 8 Subjectivity 3.

SHARED UPSET LOSSES
Objectivity finishes 8-1-3 when it comes to seeding the matchups closer.

DIFFERENT TOP 32 TEAMS
Objectively favored teams finished 7-7 with three teams advancing to the Sweet Sixteen. Subjectively favored teams finished 1-7.

TEAMS WITH SEEDS UPGRADED BY 4+ PLACES
These teams finished 8-8 with three teams advancing to the Sweet Sixteen. Only two of eight losses were to an opponent seeded lower by the Power Points System.

TEAMS WITH SEEDS DOWNGRADED BY 4+ PLACES
These teams finished 1-6.

OBJECTIVITY'S UPSET LOSSES
Only three of the 15 games won by teams seeded lower by the Power Points System involved a seed difference greater than three.