Friday, July 12, 2013

Schedule Strength and Scoring Margin

I'm not a fan of using scoring margin or margin of victory beyond it serving as a tiebreaker like net points does in the Power Points System. However said, I'm certainly open to rewarding margin of victory or something similar if it leads to college football adopting an objective rules system. That said, to see what if any difference scoring margin might make if it applied to the Power Points System, I added average scoring margin to each team's power points/schedule strength totals and ranked teams accordingly. Below are the results after bowl games with FCS wins and losses treated as equal to the least valuable FBS wins and losses respectively. To the right of each team's name is its official standing (excluding average scoring margin), power points with ASM, power points without ASM, and average scoring margin. Although Alabama finished 2nd in the official standings despite its dominating win over Notre Dame in the BCS title, the power points system's true purpose is to determine playoff qualifiers and seeds and allow postseason results to determine the national champion. Notre Dame finishing first is similar to a team not winning the Super Bowl but still finishing with the best overall record. That said, the average team moved up or down 2.5 places between the two power points standings. Arizona State had biggest jump due to ASM moving from 60th to 50th place while Buffalo had the biggest drop falling from 92nd to 101st place.

1 -Alabama 2 109.8 82.0 27.8
2 -Oregon 5 102.0 74.0 28.0
3 -Notre Dame 1 98.0 85.0 13.0
4 -Florida 4 90.0 78.0 12.0
5 -Stanford 3 89.6 79.0 10.6
6 -Ohio State 6 87.3 73.0 14.3
7 -Texas A&M 9 83.7 61.0 22.7
8 -Georgia 7 81.1 63.0 18.1
9 -Florida State 11 80.6 56.0 24.6
10 -Kansas State 10 77.7 61.0 16.7
11 -South Carolina 8 75.3 62.0 13.3
12 -Clemson 12 72.2 56.0 16.2
13 -San Jose State 13 69.5 56.0 13.5
14 -Oklahoma 14 64.7 52.0 12.7
15 -Louisiana State 15 63.2 51.0 12.2
16 -Utah State 18 62.5 43.0 19.5
17 -Northern Illinois 21 59.7 41.0 18.7
18 -Boise State 20 56.5 42.0 14.5
19 -Nebraska 16 55.2 48.0 7.2
20 -Arkansas State 19 53.5 43.0 10.5
21 -Louisville 17 51.4 44.0 7.4
22 -Oregon State 23 50.9 39.0 11.9
23 -Tulsa 22 50.1 39.0 11.1
24 -Cincinnati 28 46.8 33.0 13.8
25 -Northwestern 26 46.2 37.0 9.2
26 -Kent State 25 45.6 37.0 8.6
27 -Texas 24 44.5 38.0 6.5
28 -Michigan 27 44.0 34.0 10.0
29 -Central Florida 31 43.4 30.0 13.4
30 -Oklahoma State 39 42.5 25.0 17.5
31 -Louisiana Tech 33 41.0 28.0 13.0
32 -Fresno State 37 40.1 26.0 14.1
33 -Penn State 32 40.0 30.0 10.0
34 -UCLA 30 38.7 32.0 6.7
35 -Vanderbilt 36 37.3 26.0 11.3
36 -Ball State 29 34.6 33.0 1.6
37 -Brigham Young 45 33.7 19.0 14.7
38 -Baylor 38 33.2 26.0 7.2
39 -Wisconsin 42 32.4 22.0 10.4
40 -San Diego State 41 30.5 22.0 8.5
41 -Toledo 34 30.2 27.0 3.2
42 -North Carolina 48 29.9 15.0 14.9
43 -Arizona 35 29.8 27.0 2.8
44 -Michigan State 40 27.7 24.0 3.7
45 -Louisiana-Lafayette 44 27.4 20.0 7.4
46 -Rutgers 43 27.3 20.0 7.3
47 -Syracuse 46 23.2 18.0 5.2
48 -Southern California 52 21.8 14.0 7.8
49 -Texas Tech 47 21.7 16.0 5.7
50 -Arizona State 60 21.1 7.0 14.1
51 -Mississippi State 51 20.2 14.0 6.2
52 -Ohio 56 16.9 10.0 6.9
53 -Miami-Florida 50 15.9 15.0 0.9
54 -Virginia Tech 54 15.2 13.0 2.2
55 -Navy 49 14.3 15.0 -0.7
56 -Mississippi 57 13.8 10.0 3.8
57 -Texas Christian 59 13.7 8.0 5.7
58 -Washington 53 12.8 13.0 -0.2
59 -Louisiana-Monroe 58 12.7 8.0 4.7
60 -Bowling Green 63 11.2 5.0 6.2
61 -Georgia Tech 64 10.3 5.0 5.3
62 -Middle Tennessee State 55 9.6 11.0 -1.4
63 -West Virginia 61 8.4 7.0 1.4
64 -Missouri 62 4.3 7.0 -2.7
65 -Southern Methodist 68 3.8 -1.0 4.8
66 -Iowa State 66 3.6 3.0 0.6
67 -East Carolina 65 2.8 3.0 -0.2
68 -North Carolina State 67 2.5 0.0 2.5
69 -Western Kentucky 71 -2.3 -5.0 2.7
70 -Pittsburgh 73 -2.5 -8.0 5.5
71 -UTSA 70 -2.6 -5.0 2.4
72 -Rice 72 -4.2 -6.0 1.8
73 -Nevada 76 -6.9 -11.0 4.1
74 -Duke 69 -7.5 -3.0 -4.5
75 -Tennessee 74 -7.5 -8.0 0.5
76 -Central Michigan 75 -13.5 -10.0 -3.5
77 -Purdue 77 -13.5 -11.0 -2.5
78 -Utah 82 -16.4 -18.0 1.6
79 -Minnesota 80 -17.6 -15.0 -2.6
80 -Troy 83 -17.9 -18.0 0.1
81 -Arkansas 78 -18.9 -12.0 -6.9
82 -Houston 84 -21.6 -18.0 -3.6
83 -Iowa 85 -22.6 -19.0 -3.6
84 -Marshall 87 -24.2 -22.0 -2.2
85 -Air Force 88 -24.6 -23.0 -1.6
86 -Connecticut 81 -26.4 -16.0 -10.4
87 -Wake Forest 79 -27.3 -14.0 -13.3
88 -Temple 89 -29.5 -23.0 -6.5
89 -North Texas 90 -29.9 -23.0 -6.9
90 -Miami-Ohio 86 -31.6 -20.0 -11.6
91 -Virginia 94 -32.2 -26.0 -6.2
92 -Indiana 96 -32.5 -28.0 -4.5
93 -Auburn 91 -33.7 -24.0 -9.7
94 -South Florida 95 -33.8 -27.0 -6.8
95 -California 93 -35.1 -25.0 -10.1
96 -Western Michigan 102 -35.3 -35.0 -0.3
97 -Texas State 97 -35.6 -29.0 -6.6
98 -Wyoming 100 -37.6 -31.0 -6.6
99 -Maryland 99 -38.1 -31.0 -7.1
100 -Colorado State 98 -39.1 -30.0 -9.1
101 -Buffalo 92 -40.6 -25.0 -15.6
102 -Memphis 103 -40.8 -35.0 -5.8
103 -Florida International 104 -42.7 -36.0 -6.7
104 -Kentucky 101 -47.1 -34.0 -13.1
105 -Florida Atlantic 105 -47.3 -37.0 -10.3
106 -UAB 107 -50.3 -41.0 -9.3
107 -New Mexico 112 -51.5 -47.0 -4.5
108 -UTEP 108 -51.6 -43.0 -8.6
109 -Washington State 106 -53.3 -40.0 -13.3
110 -Boston College 110 -54.8 -45.0 -9.8
111 -Illinois 109 -59.4 -44.0 -15.4
112 -Army 115 -60.1 -49.0 -11.1
113 -Hawaii 113 -61.5 -47.0 -14.5
114 -Eastern Michigan 111 -62.3 -46.0 -16.3
115 -Tulane 114 -64.0 -47.0 -17.0
116 -Kansas 116 -68.8 -51.0 -17.8
117 -UNLV 119 -69.6 -59.0 -10.6
118 -South Alabama 120 -72.0 -61.0 -11.0
119 -Akron 121 -72.6 -63.0 -9.6
120 -Idaho 117 -80.6 -54.0 -26.6
121 -Colorado 118 -85.2 -57.0 -28.2
122 -Southern Mississippi 124 -86.2 -68.0 -18.2
123 -New Mexico State 123 -86.8 -66.0 -20.8
124 -Massachusetts 122 -91.5 -64.0 -27.5

Sunday, July 7, 2013

AP Poll Points Possible

The 35 AP Poll Champions since 1978 are listed in order of highest to lowest percentage of possible points received then chronologically if tied.

1987 Miami 100.000 Power Points Champion
1992 Alabama 100.000 Power Points Champion
1995 Nebraska 100.000 Power Points Champion
1998 Tennessee 100.000 Power Points Champion
1999 Florida State 100.000 Power Points Champion
2000 Oklahoma 100.000 Power Points Champion
2001 Miami 100.000 Power Points Champion
2002 Ohio State 100.000 Power Points Champion
2005 Texas 100.000 Power Points Champion
2009 Alabama 100.000 Power Points Champion
2012 Alabama 100.000 Power Points Champion
2006 Florida 99.938 Power Points Champion
1996 Florida 99.910 Power Points Champion
1988 Notre Dame 99.875 Power Points Champion
1985 Oklahoma 99.825 Power Points Champion
2004 USC 99.815 Power Points Champion
2010 Auburn 99.797 Power Points Champion
1986 Penn State 99.737 Power Points Champion
1981 Clemson 99.694 PPC = Pittsburgh
2007 LSU 99.692 Power Points Champion
2011 Alabama 99.667 PPC = Oklahoma State
1980 Georgia 99.325 PPC = Pittsburgh
1994 Nebraska 99.323 Power Points Champion
1983 Miami 99.025 PPC = Auburn 
1982 Penn State 99.000 Power Points Champion
2003 USC 98.954 PPC = LSU
1997 Michigan 98.943 PPC = Nebraska 
1993 Florida State 98.839 Power Points Champion
2008 Florida 98.831 Power Points Champion
1990 Colorado 98.333 Power Points Champion
1979 Alabama 98.284 PPC = USC
1989 Miami 98.237 PPC = Notre Dame
1991 Miami 98.133 Power Points Champion
1978 Alabama 96.838 PPC = USC
1984 BYU 96.667 PPC = Washington

NATIONAL CHAMPIONS: Power Points, AP, and Coaches

Listed below are the Power Points Champions for the past 35 seasons based on awarding the title to the bowl winner with the most power points. Each Power Points Champion is listed with its highest rank among bowl winners in the AP or Coaches poll. Below that is a list of AP and/or Coaches Poll champions that did not win the power points title. Those teams are listed with their rank among bowl winners in the Power Points Standings.

POWER POINTS CHAMPIONS
1978 USC 1
1979 USC 2
1980 Pittsburgh 2
1981 Pittsburgh 2
1982 Penn State 1
1983 Auburn 2
1984 Washington 2
1985 Oklahoma 1
1986 Penn State 1
1987 Miami 1
1988 Notre Dame 1
1989 Notre Dame 2
1990 Colorado 1
1991 Miami 1
1992 Alabama 1
1993 Florida State 1
1994 Nebraska 1
1995 Nebraska 1
1996 Florida 1
1997 Nebraska 1
1998 Tennessee 1
1999 Florida State 1
2000 Oklahoma 1
2001 Miami 1
2002 Ohio State 1
2003 LSU 1
2004 USC 1
2005 Texas 1
2006 Florida 1
2007 LSU 1
2008 Florida 1
2009 Alabama 1
2010 Auburn 1
2011 Oklahoma State 2
2012 Alabama 1

AP AND/OR COACHES POLL CHAMPIONS NOT LISTED ABOVE
1978 Alabama 2
1979 Alabama 2
1980 Georgia 3
1981 Clemson 2
1983 Miami 3
1984 BYU 2
1989 Miami 3
1990 Georgia Tech 3
1991 Washington 2
1997 Michigan 2
2003 USC 2
2011 Alabama 2

AP Poll First Place Votes

Since 1978, 73 different teams have received at least one first place vote in the final AP poll that determines the national champion. The 73 teams are listed below in order of highest to lowest percentage of first place votes received and most to least possible first place votes. The top 35 teams are the 35 AP champions since 1978. Although the Power Points System is not meant to determine a national champion, for purposes here, the Power Points title is awarded to the bowl winner with the most power points. In 32 of 35 seasons, the top bowl winner placed first in the Power Points Standings outright. The three exceptions are 1980, 2011, and 2012. Top bowl winners Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, and Alabama replace non-winners Florida State, LSU, and Notre Dame respectively in those years. One Power Points Champion, 1981 Pittsburgh, did not receive a first place vote and is listed 74th.

2001 Miami 72 72 100.0 Power Points Champion
2000 Oklahoma 71 71 100.0 Power Points Champion
2002 Ohio State 71 71 100.0 Power Points Champion
1998 Tennessee 70 70 100.0 Power Points Champion
1999 Florida State 70 70 100.0 Power Points Champion
2005 Texas 65 65 100.0 Power Points Champion
1992 Alabama 62 62 100.0 Power Points Champion
1995 Nebraska 62 62 100.0 Power Points Champion
2009 Alabama 60 60 100.0 Power Points Champion
2012 Alabama 59 59 100.0 Power Points Champion
1987 Miami 57 57 100.0 Power Points Champion
2006 Florida 64 65 98.5 Power Points Champion
1996 Florida 65.5 67 97.8 Power Points Champion
1988 Notre Dame 58.5 60 97.5 Power Points Champion
1985 Oklahoma 55 57 96.5 Power Points Champion
1981 Clemson 47 49 95.9
2004 USC 62 65 95.4 Power Points Champion
2010 Auburn 56 59 94.9 Power Points Champion
1986 Penn State 54 57 94.7 Power Points Champion
1980 Georgia 58.5 63 92.9
2007 LSU 60 65 92.3 Power Points Champion
2011 Alabama 55 60 91.7
1994 Nebraska 51.5 62 83.1 Power Points Champion
1983 Miami 47.5 59 80.5
1982 Penn State 44 55 80.0 Power Points Champion
1993 Florida State 46 62 74.2 Power Points Champion
2003 USC 48 65 73.8
2008 Florida 48 65 73.8 Power Points Champion
1997 Michigan 51.5 70 73.6
1979 Alabama 46 67 68.7
1990 Colorado 39 60 65.0 Power Points Champion
1989 Miami 38 59 64.4
1984 BYU 38 60 63.3
1978 Alabama 38 68 55.9
1991 Miami 32 60 53.3 Power Points Champion
1991 Washington 28 60 46.7
1990 Georgia Tech 20 60 33.3
1989 Notre Dame 19 59 32.2 Power Points Champion
1979 USC 21 67 31.3 Power Points Champion
1978 USC 19 68 27.9 Power Points Champion
1984 Washington 16 60 26.7 Power Points Champion
1997 Nebraska 18.5 70 26.4 Power Points Champion
2003 LSU 17 65 26.2 Power Points Champion
2008 Utah 16 65 24.6
1993 Notre Dame 12 62 19.4
1994 Penn State 10.5 62 16.9
1982 SMU 9 55 16.4
1978 Oklahoma 11 68 16.2
1983 Auburn 7 59 11.9 Power Points Champion
1984 Florida 6 60 10.0
1983 Nebraska 4.5 59 7.6
2011 Oklahoma State 4 60 6.7 Power Points Champion
1993 Auburn 4 62 6.5
1980 Pittsburgh 3.5 63 5.6 Power Points Champion
1986 Oklahoma 3 57 5.3
2010 TCU 3 59 5.1
2004 Auburn 3 65 4.6
2007 Georgia 3 65 4.6
1982 Nebraska 2 55 3.6
1989 Florida State 2 59 3.4
1988 Miami 1.5 60 2.5
1996 Ohio State 1.5 67 2.2
1981 Penn State 1 49 2.0
1981 SMU 1 49 2.0
1985 Michigan 1 57 1.8
1985 Tennessee 1 57 1.8
1990 Miami 1 60 1.7
2011 LSU 1 60 1.7
1980 Florida State 1 63 1.6
2006 Boise State 1 65 1.5
2007 USC 1 65 1.5
2007 Kansas 1 65 1.5
2008 USC 1 65 1.5
1981 Pittsburgh 0 49 0.0 Power Points Champion