Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Power Points and AP Poll: Separated by One Game?

The best case scenario for the Power Points System includes all FBS teams knowingly competing according to its rules while playing equal or equal maximum game regular season schedules versus FBS competition only. That said, I have 36 seasons worth of results based on FBS games only but without teams knowingly competing according to the Power Points System's rules or playing equal/equal maximum game regular season schedules. Since 1978, the average FBS season includes 619 FBS versus FBS games. If I change the outcome of just one game each year to see how close the Power Points System comes to matching the AP poll, I get the results posted below. To be clear, I'm not suggesting that the Power Points System needs to match the AP poll to be validated. I have no problem defending its actual results compared to the AP poll. I just find it interesting that the difference between a simple point system that only needs a team's wins and losses and its opponents' wins and losses to separate any pair of teams better than 99% of the time and the longest running college football poll where pollsters are free to arbitrarily and inconsistently apply any criteria to rank teams boils down to changing the outcome of a single game out of more than 600. The first set of numbers are the AP ranks of the Power Points System's top four teams at the end of the regular season. The second set are the AP ranks of the top four teams if I change the outcome of a single game to produce a result that best matches the AP poll. In some instances, changing the outcome of a single game was not required as a result closer to matching the AP than the original result could not be achieved.

1978 1 2 3 10 to 1 2 3 4
1979 1 4 6 9 to 1 3 4 6
1980 2 3 7 14 to 2 3 4 14
1981 1 7 9 10 to 1 3 7 10
1982 1 2 3 5 to 1 2 3 4
1983 1 2 3 9 to 1 2 3 4
1984 1 2 3 4 to 1 2 3 4
1985 1 3 5 6 to 1 2 3 5
1986 1 2 4 5 to 1 2 3 4
1987 2 3 4 5 to 1 2 3 4
1988 1 2 5 6 to 1 2 5 6
1989 1 3 4 8 to 1 2 3 4
1990 1 2 3 4 to 1 2 3 4
1991 1 2 3 4 to 1 2 3 4
1992 1 2 3 4 to 1 2 3 4
1993 1 2 3 8 to 1 2 3 5
1994 1 2 5 6 to 1 2 3 5
1995 1 2 3 4 to 1 2 3 4
1996 1 2 3 5 to 1 2 3 4
1997 1 2 3 4 to 1 2 3 4
1998 1 2 6 8 to 1 2 3 8
1999 1 2 3 5 to 1 2 3 5
2000 1 2 3 7 to 1 2 3 4
2001 1 3 4 8 to 1 2 3 4
2002 1 2 4 5 to 1 2 4 5
2003 1 2 3 7 to 1 2 3 4
2004 1 2 3 6 to 1 2 3 4
2005 1 2 3 4 to 1 2 3 4
2006 1 2 3 9 to 1 2 3 4
2007 2 3 5 7 to 1 2 3 5
2008 1 2 3 7 to 1 2 3 5
2009 1 2 5 6 to 1 2 4 5
2010 1 3 9 10 to 1 2 3 9
2011 1 3 4 8 to 1 2 3 8
2012 1 3 4 8 to 1 2 3 4
2013 1 2 5 7 to 1 2 3 5

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