Sunday, December 28, 2014

Simplifying the NFL Tiebreaker System: Updated to include 2014

NFL tiebreaker procedures can be found here. For some time now I have thought the NFL's tiebreaker methods could be much simpler so I cut out everything but strength of victory, strength of schedule, and net points in all games which are currently tiebreakers #5, #6, and #10 where division ties are concerned and one spot higher where wildcard ties are concerned. So what remains is the following:

The six postseason participants from each conference are seeded as follows:

1-The division champion with the best record.
2-The division champion with the second-best record.
3-The division champion with the third-best record.
4-The division champion with the fourth-best record.
5-The Wild Card club with the best record.
6-The Wild Card club with the second-best record.

To break all ties regardless of number of teams involved and their respective divisions:

1-Strength of victory.
2-Strength of schedule.
3-Net points in all games.

This system was applied to the last 12 NFL seasons (2003-2014).

A. 23 of 24 top seeds remained the same.
B. 44 of 48 teams with byes remained the same.
C. 92 of 96 division champions remained the same.
D. 139 of 144 playoff teams remained the same.
E. 121 of 144 playoff teams retained the same seed.
F. The 2nd and 3rd tiebreakers were not needed in the last 12 seasons to determine a single top seed, bye, division champion, or playoff team.
G. Only 21 pairs of teams out of 5952 pairs over 12 seasons finished with the same record and strength of victory.

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